Recession on the Doorstep, Knocking

Guess what?

That thud you heard of markets Scholars around the world, particularly in the U.S. with the 9% drop in the Standard & Poor's 500, on Wednesday was the last sound of glasses roses falling from the noses of investors, commentators and investment analysts who have finally accepted that the world is in recession uprising, led by the tottering U.S., UK and European economies.After lower Wednesday, European markets fell heavily again on Thursday but the sell- United States has slowed as investors accepted the new reality. In fact, Wall Street rebounded strongly in late trading.

Resources have been adversely affected than large investors abandoned their last defensive position.

Wednesday and Thursday saw a collection of figures, reports and comments have confirmed that the global economy will drop below the International Monetary Fund's idea of a global recession in 2009: the global growth of 3%.

It is now clear that the U.S. economy is sliding, nastily, but quickly a collapse like we have not seen this side of World War 2. U.S. consumers, who bear the economy United States on their backs by generating 70% of the annual event, are beaten into submission.

Consumer spending, credit consumption and retail sales are falling to levels not seen for decades. There is every chance that October and November will see declines further pronounced than we have seen in August and September.

The investment manager monthly survey by Merrill Lynch, released overnight, said "Investors are waiting for the right conditions for returning to the capital markets among the most pessimistic yet registered"

The survey completed as global equity markets have declined in value by 18.7%, shows that nearly seven in 10 respondents (69%) believe that the economy World has entered recession, up sharply from 44% a month ago.

growing risk aversion has led to a record 49% of respondents Cash who are overweight.

The number of respondents who believe that the shares are undervalued has reached a peak of 10 years to 43%.

"Fund managers are waiting for the triggers that will give them the confidence to buy," said Gary Baker, head of strategy shares at Merrill Lynch.

What they are looking for an easing of monetary conditions and for the results the third quarter to clarify where problems and opportunities in the equity markets. "

But the investigation showed that respondents seem to be little or no credibility in its consensus earnings estimates for the coming year. Net 92% of respondents believe that the estimates "too high", and more than half say estimates are "far too high."

At a time of global pessimism, darkness is more concentrated in the world outside Europe. A t 41% of net assets dispatchers the world are underweight the shares of the euro area. Europe has now assumed the mantle of the UK as the least popular destination in the world equity investments.

The survey also found U.S. fund managers are now much closer to accepting that they fully expect a recession will be deep and prolonged U.S..

"In our view, however, it is too early to say that we have reached a bottom on stock markets given the current financial crisis turmoil, "said Sheryl King, chief economist of the United States at Merrill Lynch.

Curiously, we should be relieved by this information because there is some something reassuring about the acceptance of a future recession or development.

I would much prefer that the face of fear and hatred absolute, we have seen in the markets last week in the global credit panic.

This does not mean the pressure of the panic disappeared: they are always with us, but Wednesday and yesterday's weakness on world markets has been more an acceptance that the old economic policy activity is sliding and there will be more pain and suffering before getting through it.

But this is not an absolute collapse and beautiful.

We are not out of the woods by a long way, but if central banks and governments hold their nerves, they could get away with only a tear instead of a serious economic recovery of 1932-33.

If what happened?

Federal Reserve American said that economic activity has deteriorated in all reports of its 12 districts across the country with lower activity in the retail, financial services, housing, tourism. investigation Fed's Beige Book of economic conditions revealed generalized weakness, with tight credit, deteriorating consumer spending and a weak labor market across the nation.

Fed Ben Bernanke and the head of the San Francisco Fed, Janet Yellen, both clearly in their own way, there was no solution rapid or early return to the slowing U.S. economy.

Whether the hopes for a recovery in 2009 have been displaced, and 2010 could see some improvement.

U.S. industrial production fell last month, struck by storms, demand slump and the credit crunch. The Fed said the decline of 6% is the largest for 24 years and production would have declined even though there was no summer storms in the Gulf and a strike at Boeing.

Another survey by the Philadelphia Fed showed a sharp contraction in the industry manufacturing in the region, while the commercial paper market fell again, but the rate of decline slows as the Fed starts lending money to leading companies.

U.S. retail sales fell 1.2% in September, almost double the forecast fall by economists as cars, food and all categories have been weak. Auctions on the Internet site, eBay out of 1% during the quarter, the first drop in the history of the company.

The fall left retail sales 1% lower than a year earlier, signaling that consumers have removed many stores and malls in the United States during the month.

A prominent member of the U.S. Federal Reserve Janet Yellen, the head of the San Francisco Fed describing the U.S. economy as "seems to be in recession" and worrying Alert chance of further decline in inflation next year in the United States to replace the price deflation.

The New York Fed produced its general economic index had its worst reading since it began in 2001 when the last U.S. recession was departure.

In good and bad news, producer prices in the United States fell for a second consecutive month that the costs fuel and oil fell, and demand eased.

The U.S. Labor Department said prices paid to producers U.S. fell 0.4%, while the base price has increased by 0.4%. It is a sign of growing U.S. companies are increasingly hard way rising costs on the production line.

U.S. inflation in consumer prices was better than expected due falling oil prices and demand shift: they eased 0.1% for the second straight month and rose 0.1% on a basic foundation. Inflation over year in September was up 4.9% against 5.4% in August.

The fall in retail sales was the third in a row, and more profound: he was taken by 27% fall in car sales in the United States in the month and the drop in demand caused by the credit crunch as Consumers have been denied credit, or have stopped buying the cards.

Economists say the decline in retail sales in the neighborhood of September (and consumer spending and credit even less) certain that the appearance of real consumption fall for the first time in a quarter in the United States for 17 years.

In Europe, Germany, the continent's biggest economy, reduced its growth forecast dramatically.

The German government has said 2009 growth of 1.2% to 0.2%, reflecting increased risks to the economy international, but he warned the exact extent of the slowdown will depend on the severity and duration of the financial crisis.

The new estimate is the joint forecast published by the leading institutes in their country's economic report scheduled to fall on Tuesday. The institute has also published a worst-case scenario that could see Germany's economy back from 0.8% in 2009 ..

The fall in retail sales is retailers U.S. and forecasters increasingly reluctant to retail season of Christmas with very important: it could be a holiday terrible for consumers, retailers and the economy, and analysts now say the U.S. will drop its second quarter growth economy in a row in the December quarter.

The growth this quarter may plunge into the red, and produce an outright recession by the conventional definitions of the United States.

Ms. Yellen said the U.S. economy was likely to see "Almost no growth "in the third quarter and fourth quarter" appears to be weaker yet, with an outright contraction quite likely. "

"Indeed, the U.S. economy appears to be in a recession," Yellen said.

Ebay expecting sales quarterly, fourth quarter and annual earnings forecasts would fall as growth slows to its websites.

EBay forecast revenues for the fourth $ US2.02 billion quarter to US2.17 billion compared to $ US2.18 billion in the last quarter of 2007. The company said the value goods sold on its sites fell 1% in the third quarter, the first drop in the history of the company.

And at the end of the day Fed issued its so-called Beige Book.

"Reports indicated that economic activity weakened in September across all twelve Federal Districts Reserve. Several districts also noted that their contacts had become more pessimistic about the economic outlook.

"Consumer spending decreased in most districts, with declines reported in retailing, auto sales and tourism. Almost all districts of comments on nonfinancial service industries noted reduced activity. Manufacturing slowed in most districts.

"Markets Residential real estate remained weak, and commercial real estate activity slowed in many districts. Credit conditions have been characterized as being tight in the twelve districts, with several reports of reduced availability of credit to financial institutions and non-financial.

"District reports on agriculture and natural resources have been generally positive, although conditions adverse weather associated with hurricanes Ike and Gustav affected the South and Midwest. Inflationary pressures slowed slightly in September. "

It was a very dark outline of an economy from the bottom position at an accelerated pace.

Fed said that consumers are increasingly price sensitive, credit becomes more difficult to find and this undermined the sales at retailers across the country, the report. Given this, retailers foresee a "weaker economic outlook, including a slow holiday season "The Fed said.

The survey was released shortly after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech in New York, warned it would take time for the country's economic health to repair, even if badly needed confidence in the U.S. financial system and markets stabilize troubled back.

In the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is on its way to two million in the course of the next six months after a new increase in August to 1.79 million, or 5.7%. As bad as the rate is still well below the 6.1% American.

The official figures show than 164,000 in the United Kingdom unemployment rose between June and late August. The larger increase than expected – by 0.5 percentage point to 5.7% was the largest since 1991 and the eighth successive monthly increase. (It is nine in a row in the U.S.). UK inflation reached an annual rate of 5.2%, a record 16 years.

Our unemployment rate in September rose to 4.3%, which is a long way to the depth of the United States and economies UK!

—–

In Europe, sales of new cars by 8.2% last month as the financial crisis put off potential buyers.The Association Continent automakers in a statement: "The drop in registrations confirms the aggravating market circumstances, the fallout from the financial crisis hit automakers hard. "

"Customers are increasingly hesitant to make significant expenditure and it is more difficult to obtain their purchase financed.

ACEA said a total of 1,304,583 new cars were registered in September in the 28 countries he has examined – The 27 EU member states, minus Cyprus and Malta, plus Iceland, Norway and Switzerland.

—–

In Moscow yesterday, the bank Globex banned depositors local to withdraw their money as confidence in the Russian banking system began to show signs of evaporating.Globex ¬ is a size Average retail bank with assets of US4 billion, according to the Financial Times. This is the first Russian bank to experience a rush on deposits during the crisis.

He has lost 28% of its deposits since the beginning of last month, according to local analysts.

At least a dozen other Russian banks have reported a sharp increase in withdrawals and account closures.

—–

Hungary was plunged financial uncertainty over the night with its currency (the forint) and the stock market fell sharply and bankers reported a lack of credit, as spread concern in Eastern Europe on the impact of the global financial crisis. In Budapest, the forint fell 5.3% to 266 the euro and the BUX index closed leading stocks down 12%, dragged down by a 15% drop in the price of OTP, the largest bank in the country. Currencies and stock markets also fell in Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary Ukraine.The turmoil followed moves by big banks Plan to stop or limit foreign currency loans, the dominant form of credit in Hungary in recent years.

Analysts now say there is a chance that the increase in inflow will slow, reducing the funds available to finance the country's current account and put more pressure on the currency and the solvency of banks and other financial groups.

The European Central Bank will lend 5 billion euros to Hungary to support currency and economy.

—–

If What does this mean for Australia?

Rory Robertson is a strategic interest in Macquarie Group, is his perspective on what lies ahead for Australia. It is both pro- investment and negativeBusiness eastern Australia "weak link"

The outlook for business investment have deteriorated sharply around the world in recent months, that stock prices have imploded, credit conditions have tightened considerably and prices of raw materials collapsed. Keynes' famous "animal spirits have been crushed, everywhere.

It's a big deal for Australia, because business fixed investment (BFI) is at record levels for several decades 16% of GDP, after having trended upward since the end of the recession early 1990s.

In the 2000s, the uptrend in BFI was fueled by buildings and structures spending, much of it related to mining (see top left of the P6 http://www.rba.gov.au/ChartPack/output_expenditure_activity_fincon.pdf ).

With the spirits of animals, purchasing power and prices of commodities that have to lower the global credit crunch intensified, the BFI be the weak link in Australia's GDP growth in the coming years.

While the Australian economy into recession, BFI will main engine, as always.

Household spending will be relatively strong, especially now that the fiscal and monetary policy will have a significant boost to cash flow through lower rates of household income and mortgage top-ups for families, retirees and first time home buyers (See below and note the heavy official interest rates, mortgage rates rather than borrowing companies at this point at least).

Four factors optimistic that give Australia a fighting chance in World downturnAs regular readers know, I was a bit of a punishment "and Gloom" every year. In a conference call from NZ last week, I was asked to say something positive, to highlight any recent positive developments. I highlighted four factors that give the economy Australian a chance in a global recession: • part of the RBA effective policy, monetary and much ammunition. The RBA cut its federal funds rate by 125bp over the last six weeks, and the type variable mortgage rate has fallen by 105bp. The Fed, the ECB and the BOE can only dream of such powerful pass-through.

In addition, the rate of money is still relatively high 6%, so there is plenty of room to lower rates as needed. I guess RBA will cut to "neutral" from 5% by Christmas, causing mortgage rates and business significantly lower (see discussion below and attached RBA Watch).

• Weak $ A is now Australia's new best friend, given the recent significant decline in world prices raw materials. The A $ 's decline 20-30% from recent highs is a huge free kick to Australian exporters and import-competere, insofar as it is supported. As noted here last week, some of our sectors are tradable once back in business.

  Yes global demand is weakening fast but at least our tourism, agricultural, manufacturing, education and other sectors exchangeable sell more with one nearly U.S. $ 70 cents to nearly 90 U.S. cents (or DHT in the 50s rather than in the 70s).

• Canberra balance sheet Blank means there is plenty of ammunition tax (see p8 for http://rba.gov.au/ChartPack/output_expenditure_activity_fincon.pdf). Canberra has plenty of room for fight against the cyclic, including new spending, tax breaks and loan guarantees, while both Canberra and the states have much space for further expansion of their infrastructure programs.
• Indeed, Canberra yesterday announced a stimulus package before Christmas, perhaps a value of 1% of GDP, with top-ups cash for pensioners on low and middle income families and first home buyers).
• More importantly, with a point of no net debt and lenders starting in Australia and well regulated yet highly profitable, Canberra guaranteed deposits financial system and some (new and existing) debt is absolutely credible.
• housing sector in Australia is largely regarded as having the problem of "Under Building" rather than "over-building, as the United States. In Australia, the growth rapid population – driven by immigration 100-200K each year for a decade – has hit a flat trend for two decades new home starts only 150k per year. Canberra has overseen the biggest immigration program in the history of Australia, without opening construction of additional housing ("the land release" and "planning" for residential construction is usually supervised State and local governments).

The lamentable lack of coordination between Canberra and the U.S. Immigration and Housing has long been considered a problem, putting upward pressure on home prices and rents, and reducing affordability housing. Now, Australia slow housing supply response is suddenly a good thing, which limits the size of a price the future home-falls (see p4 of http://www.rba.gov.au/ChartPack/output_expenditure_activity_fincon.pdf ).

Immigration and house prices

As you know, falling house prices are a problem major in the United States, the United Kingdom and parts of Europe. Damage caused by falling house prices balance sheets of banks in these economies – And more damage to consumer spending – must obviously be avoided in Australia. According while being largely implicit, to maintain prices Australian homes near current levels is now a major policy priority for the RBA and Canberra.

Aggressive rate cuts obviously help, as yesterday's insistence UP-first-time buyers house for 150k in action.

In this context, recent reports of pressures increasing to reduce our consumption of immigration are a bit disturbing.

Recall that during the recession of the early 1990s, net immigration fell to 170k in 1989 to just 30k in 2003 (lowest in four quarters-ended figure), which reinforces the trend the Australian economy to stall.

From the perspective of macro-economic, cuts of this order this time should be avoided as fever (see Net overseas migration to Australia highest on record: ABS and SMH: Rudd flags cut in migrant numbers)

As a reminder, all political efforts to date are important counter-cyclical in nature: in particular, decreases the RBA rate, Canberra fiscal stimulus timely, and its security aspects of the financial sector, promotion of mortgages and the prohibition of "short selling" (Not to mention the sharp drop in market-oriented in the A $).

However, immigration is a measure of reducing pro-cyclical, mainly working cons policy initiatives listed above.

RBA policy, interest rates lower, and restricting the house falls pricesThose forecasts of falling house prices Australia would do well to notice the recent dramatic decline in mortgage rates, with more come.The result large declines in interest payments relative to household incomes of less relevant to the high debt ratios of income / parroted by some.

Compare stocks with flows generally said little, we must know, the payments of interest to compare with income (flow / flow) and debt with assets (shares / stocks) provides more meaningful.

With the current economic and financial world have turned out so nasty, aggressive RBA easing was / is the most obvious policy response to support continued economic growth.

And in six short weeks, the RBA has shown that its interest rate tools are much more powerful than those available to the Fed, the BOE and most if not all other central banks. Despite much media attention, high levels of interbank lending has not stopped big drops mortgage rates Australia.

To recall, the story so far:

• RBA has cut its federal funds rate by 125bp in two stages (25 bp followed by 100 basis points), with more to come
• the three-month rate banknote (BBSW, an essential guide for much of the bank financing costs) fell by about 1-1/3pp during the past month, to 6.1%, and
• Mortgage rates have dropped Headline 105bp, about 8-1/2%. In addition, three-year fixed mortgage rates have declined by more than 1pp and now are widely available around 7%. Other rates of major loans are also down, but not as quickly.

In Australia, 84% (105bp/125bp) pass-through rate so far money in mortgage rates has greatly surprised the standard consensus, because when I wrote a note in August, entitled "First 50 basis points of cuts to be "transmitted", many more / were skeptical to say the least.

Above all, using more by funding provided by the RBA for the major home lenders may mean that the next cut cash rate pass-through mortgage rates as in its entirety.

In other words, the RBA announced Thursday the availability of six months and repo a year cons "Related Party" collateral in the form of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP).

In addition to this aid, Canberra's announcement Sunday helps to "long-term funding" for periods up to five years (see the expansion of domestic market facilities and guarantee wholesale funding and deposits).

Critique last drops 1pp-Plus Cash, BBSW and mortgage rates are gold for Australia home buyers, providing significant support in cash flows to the household sector and the price of the house, something the Fed can only dream About.

This, despite the funds rate being reduced from 5.25% to 1.5%, the rate of (predominantly) U.S. mortgages Fixed-rate 30-year fell by 50 basis points only about 6% or so when credit is available.

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About the Author

Australasian Investment Review (AIR) is a free daily news service covering global financial markets with a focus on Australia, New Zealand and Asia. Each day our team of experienced journalists presents you with a concise digest of expert opinions and analysis on trends and backgrounds that matter in these markets. Subscriptions are free at aireview.com.au

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QuikCool Full-Coverage Brief $19.95 “We dare you to find a more comfortable and sumptuous brief. We have cut this beautiful style for a woman, with full coverage yet with a sleek and slightly sexy appeal. But the secret to this popular style is the fabric. QuikCool is silky soft and stretchy, with the wicking power that makes all the difference. These wicking plus size panties push moisture away from your body keeping you dry and comfortable in all temperatures. Say goodbye to clammy plus size underwear. Junonia has carefully fit these for the plus size shape, and added a double inner gusset and soft, no-chafe bound edges at both the leg and waist. Enjoy the light stretchy support for active and all-day casual wear. Versatile and fast-drying, these briefs are perfect for sport, active and everyday casual wear. Antimicrobial and fast-drying, QuikCool is just the ticket for travel. ”

ActiveLife Pear Pant $59.95 “We built this pant on our best-selling silhouette just for the plus size pear shaped woman. Lusciously fuller at the hip and thigh, this go-everywhere pant fits to flatter your curves, finishing with a straight leg bottom. The elegant and versatile stretch fabric is complemented by covered elastic waist and invisible zipper slash pockets. ”

ActiveLife Pineapple Pant $59.95 “For the evenly proportioned plus size woman, the pineapple shape flatters her athletic build. A slightly fuller waist and hip with not-too-full thigh, this pant finishes with a wider leg in an elegantly stretchy fabric. Features invisible zipper slash pockets and a covered elastic waist. ”

Super Jersey Long-Sleeve Polo $49.95 “Classic, face-framing polo style features silver open-center snaps on the extra long feminine placket. Heavier weight comfortable cotton never clings. Nice length works with all your pants in this versatile long push-up sleeve plus size style. ”

Biking With Friends Long Sleeve Tee $39.95 “Nothing is more fun that rolling down a bike trail with a group of friends. This exclusive Junonia design is inspiration to arrange that next outing! Wear it on the bike trail, and everywhere you have fun. A perfect plus-size fit with a long sleeve and beautifully silkscreened design.”

Marilyn Jeans by Lee with Tummy Smoother $49.95 “This classic five-pocket jean instantly slims and smoothes your waistline, while providing all day comfort. Designed to sit at your natural waist, this close-fit plus size style has an inner tummy panel that comfortably holds you in. Fashionable straight leg silhouette slenderizes. (See style #460002 for Black.)”

Milan Jeans by Lee with Invisible-Flex Waistband $57.95 “This straight leg jean has that little extra you love in your jeans. Stylish two-tone stitching, and perfectly placed, pieced back pockets with rivets. A great plus size fit, enhanced by the clever invisible flex inner elastic waistband for extra comfort and ease of movement.”

Best-Fitting 3/4 Sleeve Bateau Top $39.95 “This flattering bateau neckline really fits! We carefully shaped it to ride perfectly at the neckline without pulling or revealing your straps. Then we gave it a designer look with pleats that flatter the plus size woman. This smooth and stretchy Cotton is not-too-heavy and never clings. A perfect weight you’ll enjoy.”

Sophisticated Shirred Tank Top $29.95 “With its elegant wide curved neckline, and armhole carefully fit to never gap, this will be your go-to tank. Under jackets or alone with capris, this plus size tank is the one you’ll love. Good thing it comes in so many colors! Soft, smooth and non-cling Cotton stretch jersey in a just-right weight.”

Juno Stretch Naturals V-Neck Tee $29.95 “Luxurious cotton with spandex for ultimate stretch and comfort. Take this shirt everywhere: gym, travel, casual. Created with Junonia’s fit and long-lasting quality. This short sleeve v-neck is uniquely cut for plus size with flattering shoulders, sleeve lengths, and relaxed hips.”

Juno Stretch Naturals 3/4 Sleeve Tunic Top $36.95 “Luxurious cotton with spandex for ultimate stretch and comfort. Layer this longer plus size top over leggings and jeans for a sleek and flattering look. Perfect for walking, travel and casual wear. Created with Junonia’s fit and long-lasting quality. This center seam tunic is cut with flattering shoulders, ¾ length sleeves, and relaxed hips.”

Juno Stretch Naturals Bra Top $29.95 “Two layers of luxurious cotton with Spandex fabric provide confident plus size support with a full-cut design that is longer at the sides. Slightly higher in front and a scooped back provides good bounce control with full comfortable coverage. Soft no-chafe covered elastic band makes getting in and out easy.”